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Peterboro 3–0 Oxford

← EFL League One 2023-24 Β· Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Linington

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win52%1.83
Draw25%3.97
Oxford win23%4.21

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro βˆ’0.553%1.83
Oxford βˆ’0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Hector Kyprianou · Peterboro
34'⚽Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro
60'🟨Peter Kioso · Peterboro
63'🟨Billy Bodin · Oxford
90'⚽Ryan De Havilland · Peterboro

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots8
9On target2
5Corners4
10Fouls6
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroOxford
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)1.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days342.0038.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.640.59
elo1581.831504.39
elo momentum (last 5)20.417.48
eye test v11.300.97
eye trend v1-0.080.09
first sub minute (last 10)62.0055.90
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.65
keeper form v10.680.72
league points35.0036.00
league rank5.004.00
matches since blank15.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.8075.40
possession avg (last 5)66.2053.00
rest days10.8010.80
scorer concentration0.210.22
season ppg1.842.00
shot diff avg (last 5)8.605.00
shots for avg (last 5)18.8015.40
skill v12.030.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.105.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.606.40
state index0.930.16
sterile dominance v11.00-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80