← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Nov 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 38% | 56% | 2.55 | value: +42% ⚠ |
| Fleetwood Town win | 35% | 21% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jordan Jones · Wigan |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · Fleetwood Town |
| 29' | 🟨 | Phoenix Patterson · Fleetwood Town |
| 31' | ⚽ | Sean Clare · Wigan |
| 40' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟥 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 52' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 61' | ⚽ | Tom Pearce · Wigan |
| 83' | 🟨 | Josh Stones · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | DW Stadium |
| coach days | 331.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1504.53 | 1391.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.55 | 17.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 24.17 | 27.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |