← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 46% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Blackpool win | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Blackpool −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Owen Dale · Blackpool |
| 10' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Portsmouth |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Blackpool |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jordan Rhodes · Blackpool |
| 55' | 🟨 | Daniel Grimshaw · Blackpool |
| 56' | 🟨 | Will Norris · Portsmouth |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Blackpool |
| 58' | 🟨 | Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Portsmouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 63' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| 🟥 |
| Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 74' | ⚽ | CJ Hamilton · Blackpool |
| 87' | ⚽ | Albie Morgan · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 328.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1592.48 | 1493.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.72 | -6.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| league points | 36.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 27.19 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 360.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |