← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 51% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 23% | 24% | 4.44 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Cheltenham +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jordan Thorniley · Oxford |
| 34' | ⚽ | Robert Street · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟥 | Robert Street · Cheltenham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ben Williams · Cheltenham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rúben Rodrigues · Oxford |
| 68' | 🟨 | Rúben Rodrigues · Oxford |
| 68' | 🟥 | Rúben Rodrigues · Oxford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Owen Bevan · Cheltenham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 76' | ⚽ | Will Goodwin · Cheltenham |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Tom Pett · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 542.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1357.71 | 1522.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.68 | 10.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.22 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.43 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |