← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 38% | 2.60 |
| Port Vale win | 33% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.25 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Oliver Arblaster · Port Vale |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 47' | 🟨 | Oliver Arblaster · Port Vale |
| 47' | 🟥 | Oliver Arblaster · Port Vale |
| 53' | 🟥 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Olamide Shodipo · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 10.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1480.55 | 1359.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.58 | -34.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |