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Fleetwood Town 3–0 Exeter

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fleetwood Town win44%2.15
Exeter win29%3.44
Draw27%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fleetwood Town −0.2553%1.85
Exeter −0.2547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Ryan Broom · Fleetwood Town
32'⚽Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town
42'⚽Phoenix Patterson · Fleetwood Town
65'🟨Yanic Wildschut · Exeter
66'🟨Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town
73'🟨Ryan Broom · Fleetwood Town
75'🟨Cheick Diabaté · Exeter

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
20Shots11
12On target7
9Corners5
8Fouls19
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFleetwood TownExeter
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.15
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.580.54
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHighbury Stadium
coach days71.00406.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.380.48
elo1394.631401.08
elo momentum (last 5)-4.54-42.92
eye test v10.42-0.73
eye trend v10.61-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.5055.60
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
keeper form v10.690.73
league points13.0017.00
league rank22.0019.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.007.00
matches since win2.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)46.6055.20
rest days9.8014.04
scorer concentration0.360.25
season ppg0.871.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6014.80
skill v1-0.540.42
sot against avg (last 5)7.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.60
state index-0.71-1.12
sterile dominance v1-0.430.25
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20