← EFL League One 2023-24 · Wed, Nov 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 43% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +4% |
| Fleetwood Town win | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Blackpool +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town |
| 17' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Blackpool |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sonny Carey · Blackpool |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sonny Carey · Blackpool |
| 54' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 65' | 🟨 | Shayne Lavery · Blackpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Blackpool |
| 71' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Fleetwood Town |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Blackpool |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 30 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 61.00 | 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1393.61 | 1489.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.57 | 5.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| league points | 12.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.24 | 4.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |