← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 46% | 54% | 2.11 | value: +15% |
| Reading win | 27% | 18% | 3.56 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 27' | ⚽ | Charlie Savage · Reading |
| 33' | ⚽ | Faustino Anjorin · Portsmouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 45' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Reading |
| 58' | ⚽ | Terry Devlin · Portsmouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Portsmouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Harlee Dean · Reading |
| 89' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Portsmouth |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ben Elliott · Reading |
| 90' | 🟥 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 149.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1417.18 | 1590.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.66 | 20.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.86 |
| league points | 10.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 24.41 |
| state index | -0.97 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 69.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |