← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 42% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| Peterboro win | 31% | 36% | 3.17 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Blackpool −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Kwame Poku · Peterboro |
| 35' | 🟨 | James Husband · Blackpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harrison Burrows · Peterboro |
| 46' | 🟥 | Oliver Casey · Blackpool |
| 47' | ⚽ | Harrison Burrows · Peterboro |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Blackpool |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro |
| 60' | ⚽ | Kenneth Dougall · Blackpool |
| 61' | 🟨 | Josh Knight · Peterboro |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sonny Carey · Blackpool |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| 🟨 |
| Jadel Katongo · Peterboro |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 180.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1504.18 | 1561.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.26 | 19.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |