← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 38% | 46% | 2.58 | value: +18% |
| Leyton Orient win | 33% | 23% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Leyton Orient +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Daniel Happe · Leyton Orient |
| 14' | ⚽ | Rob Hunt · Leyton Orient |
| 19' | 🟨 | Brandon Cooper · Leyton Orient |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 58' | 🟥 | Kieron Bowie · Northampton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lee Burge · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ed Turns · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shaqai Forde · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 995.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1433.42 | 1436.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.42 | 20.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 24.94 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |