← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.14 |
| Exeter win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Derby −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 34' | 🟨 | Conor Hourihane · Derby |
| 55' | 🟨 | Louie Sibley · Derby |
| 62' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 79' | ⚽ | Conor Washington · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 418.00 | 388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.73 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1542.81 | 1407.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.66 | -71.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.17 | -1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |