← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 44% | 34% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 28% | 36% | 3.60 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Alex Mitchell · Lincoln |
| 36' | 🟨 | Xavier Simons · Fleetwood Town |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lukas Jensen · Lincoln |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lasse Sorensen · Lincoln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟥 | Toto Nsiala · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hakeeb Adelakun · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 50.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1383.29 | 1477.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.99 | -28.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 24.87 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |