← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 54% | 46% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Wigan win | 20% | 30% | 5.00 | value: +52% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stevenage −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Steven Sessegnon · Wigan |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Pressley · Stevenage |
| 13' | 🟨 | Thelo Aasgaard · Wigan |
| 22' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Wigan |
| 34' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Wigan |
| 34' | 🟥 | Callum Lang · Wigan |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dan Sweeney · Stevenage |
| 55' | 🟨 | Omar Rekik · Wigan |
| 67' | 🟨 | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
| 69' | 🟨 | Liam Shaw · Wigan |
| 77' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 9 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | The Lamex Stadium |
| Alex MacDonald · Stevenage |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dan Butler · Stevenage |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Wigan |
| 78' | 🟨 | Charlie Hughes · Wigan |
| 88' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Pearce · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Tickle · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 585.00 | 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1433.56 | 1482.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.00 | -44.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 24.36 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |