← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 42% | 34% | 2.29 | fair |
| Wycombe win | 30% | 38% | 3.34 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Dale Taylor · Wycombe |
| 34' | ⚽ | Freddie Potts · Wycombe |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joe Low · Wycombe |
| 41' | ⚽ | Dale Taylor · Wycombe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Fleetwood Town |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · Fleetwood Town |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · Fleetwood Town |
| 63' | 🟥 | Ben Heneghan · Fleetwood Town |
| 64' | ⚽ | Luke Leahy · Wycombe |
| 74' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 12 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 76' | 🟨 | Harry Boyes · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 36.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1399.17 | 1491.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.01 | 9.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 28.39 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |