← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 42% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
| Blackpool win | 30% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Charlton −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Slobodan Tedić · Charlton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jordan Rhodes · Blackpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominic Thompson · Blackpool |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tyreece Campbell · Charlton |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Husband · Blackpool |
| 70' | ⚽ | Karamoko Dembélé · Blackpool |
| 76' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Blackpool |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Charlton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Corey Blackett-Taylor · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 36.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1482.58 | 1483.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.19 | 11.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.95 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 331.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |