← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 3, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 41% | 36% | 2.36 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 30% | 36% | 3.37 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fleetwood Town +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town |
| 19' | ⚽ | Junior Quitirna · Fleetwood Town |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Fleetwood Town |
| 55' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Cheltenham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Fleetwood Town |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Cheltenham |
| 70' | 🟥 | Curtis Davies · Cheltenham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ryan Broom · Fleetwood Town |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jayden Stockley · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| coach days | 489.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1349.16 | 1383.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.99 | -23.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.10 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 24.03 | 27.47 |
| state index | -1.89 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |