← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 3, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 37% | 26% | 2.62 | fair |
| Wigan win | 34% | 51% | 2.88 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wigan +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Babajide Adeeko · Wigan |
| 22' | 🟨 | Beryly Lubala · Burton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Josh Gordon · Burton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Charlie Hughes · Wigan |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Wigan |
| 68' | ⚽ | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Stephen Humphrys · Wigan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Beryly Lubala · Burton |
| 89' | 🟥 | Beryly Lubala · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| Mason Bennett · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 397.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1404.07 | 1493.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.04 | -52.42 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 23.22 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |