← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 43% | 63% | 2.23 | value: +41% ⚠ |
| Leyton Orient win | 30% | 14% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Toto Nsiala · Fleetwood Town |
| 52' | 🟨 | Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ruel Sotiriou · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟥 | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Brown · Leyton Orient |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 90' |
| 🟥 |
| Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 578.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1373.32 | 1423.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.81 | 19.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| league points | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.25 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |