← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 61% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.01 |
| Cheltenham win | 15% | 6.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Cheltenham −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Ben Williams · Cheltenham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Yanic Wildschut · Exeter |
| 61' | 🟨 | Josh Williams · Cheltenham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 75' | 🟨 | James Scott · Exeter |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 350.00 | 472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1472.64 | 1387.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.89 | -36.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 59.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -2.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.02 | -1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |