← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 55% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 19% | 18% | 5.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Oxford −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 20' | 🟨 | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gavin Massey · Port Vale |
| 63' | 🟥 | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alex Iacovitti · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Finley Stevens · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟥 | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfie Devine · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 185.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1460.76 | 1388.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.67 | 31.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.08 | 25.97 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |