← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 40% | 2.48 |
| Burton win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Exeter +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ryan Trevitt · Exeter |
| 81' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · Burton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Steve Seddon · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 366.00 | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1407.11 | 1476.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.31 | 40.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |