← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 43% | 2.22 |
| Derby win | 29% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Derby −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Conor Hourihane · Derby |
| 43' | 🟨 | Korey Smith · Derby |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Dion Charles · Bolton |
| 48' | 🟥 | Joe Wildsmith · Derby |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 84' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1158.00 | 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1571.00 | 1548.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.21 | 12.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 103.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |