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Peterboro 2–4 Derby

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win41%2.33
Derby win31%3.20
Draw28%3.43

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Derby −0.2551%1.90
Peterboro −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro
29'⚽Martyn Waghorn · Derby
37'⚽Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby
39'🟨Harrison Burrows · Peterboro
39'⚽Martyn Waghorn · Derby
45'⚽Martyn Waghorn · Derby
67'🟨Peter Kioso · Peterboro
86'🟨Craig Forsyth · Derby
90'⚽Kwame Poku · Peterboro

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score4
16Shots14
6On target5
8Corners9
6Fouls12
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroDerby
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.630.68
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
coach days237.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
359.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.803.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.208.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.903.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.51
elo1568.901529.07
elo momentum (last 5)41.56-12.16
eye test v10.38-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)68.0062.00
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.50
keeper form v10.710.64
league points9.006.00
league rank4.0014.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.5069.25
possession avg (last 5)53.0049.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.400.33
season ppg2.251.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.4012.80
skill v10.61-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.75
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.754.00
state index0.600.05
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.53
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00