← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 37% | 41% | 2.68 | value: +9% |
| Cambridge win | 34% | 32% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Cambridge +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient |
| 29' | ⚽ | Shaqai Forde · Leyton Orient |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jordan Graham · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Cambridge |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gassan Ahadme · Cambridge |
| 57' | ⚽ | Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lewis Simper · Cambridge |
| 82' | 🟨 | Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thomas James · Leyton Orient |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fejiri Okenabirhie · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| coach days | 543.00 | 1333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1404.66 | 1412.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.33 | 43.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| league points | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.94 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |