← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 48% | 58% | 2.00 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.65 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 25% | 19% | 3.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Charlton −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Connor Ripley · Port Vale |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfie May · Charlton |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alfie May · Charlton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ashley Maynard Brewer · Charlton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Karoy Anderson · Charlton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ethan Chislett · Port Vale |
| 55' | ⚽ | James Wilson · Port Vale |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ethan Chislett · Port Vale |
| 71' | ⚽ | Daniel Kanu · Charlton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Oliver Arblaster · Port Vale |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Valley |
| ⚽ |
| Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Hector · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 18.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1470.17 | 1366.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.63 | -3.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |