← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 40% | 57% | 2.38 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Reading win | 33% | 20% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Peterboro +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Peter Kioso · Peterboro |
| 21' | 🟨 | Femi Azeez · Reading |
| 23' | 🟨 | Sam Hutchinson · Reading |
| 38' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Peterboro |
| 53' | 🟨 | Charlie Savage · Reading |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Reading |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ronnie Edwards · Peterboro |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Reading |
| 86' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Peterboro |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 65.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1500.57 | 1547.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.62 | -14.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 25.37 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |