← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 53% | 72% | 1.81 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.75 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 20% | 10% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Barnsley −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Callum Styles · Barnsley |
| 23' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Barnsley |
| 25' | 🟨 | Max Watters · Barnsley |
| 25' | 🟨 | Herbie Kane · Barnsley |
| 39' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Daniel Jones · Barnsley |
| 47' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Barnsley |
| 53' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Barnsley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Liam Kitching · Barnsley |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lewis Cass · Port Vale |
| 64' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| ⚽ |
| Jon Russell · Barnsley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jon Russell · Barnsley |
| 89' | 🟨 | Liam Roberts · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrew Dallas · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 430.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1562.79 | 1357.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.90 | -5.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.20 | — |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |