← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sun, May 7, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 70% | 50% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 27% | 5.40 | value: +47% |
| Fleetwood Town win | 11% | 23% | 9.00 | value: +108% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +1.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Ipswich +1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under | 38% | 2.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Ipswich |
| 54' | 🟨 | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 73' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Ipswich |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Ipswich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dominic Ball · Ipswich |
| 85' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟥 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 552.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1432.10 | 1701.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.71 | 48.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.92 |
| league points | 57.00 | 97.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |