← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sun, May 7, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 47% | 62% | 2.05 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Morecambe win | 28% | 16% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 54% | 1.77 |
| Morecambe −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Exeter |
| 53' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Exeter |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Exeter |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pedro Borges · Exeter |
| 77' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jensen Weir · Morecambe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adam Mayor · Morecambe |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Kite · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Caprice · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| Ashley Hunter · Morecambe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 218.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1429.92 | 1372.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.18 | 41.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 59.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.98 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -2.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 25.93 |
| state index | -1.27 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |