← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe win | 38% | 27% | 2.56 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 33% | 45% | 2.88 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Lasse Sorensen · Lincoln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Morecambe |
| 48' | ⚽ | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Lincoln |
| 50' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 66' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Morecambe |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 82' | 🟨 | Josh Austerfield · Morecambe |
| 85' | 🟨 | Regan Poole · Lincoln |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Mazuma Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 452.00 | 1336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1361.21 | 1483.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.91 | 37.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| league points | 41.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 59.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 24.01 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |