← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 40% | 51% | 2.40 | value: +22% |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 31% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Barnsley +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.82 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Josh McEachran · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 23' | 🟨 | Liam Kitching · Barnsley |
| 30' | ⚽ | James Norwood · Barnsley |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Eisa · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 50' | 🟨 | Josh Benson · Barnsley |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jonathan Leko · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mohamed Eisa · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 69' | ⚽ | Warren O'Hora · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 73' | ⚽ | James Norwood · Barnsley |
| 75' | ⚽ | Max Watters · Barnsley |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| ⚽ |
| Max Watters · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bradley Johnson · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 149.00 | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1431.56 | 1585.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.61 | -0.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 85.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.98 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |