← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 36% | 48% | 2.68 | value: +28% |
| Port Vale win | 33% | 23% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Port Vale +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Lincoln |
| 11' | ⚽ | Lasse Sorensen · Lincoln |
| 27' | 🟥 | Carl Rushworth · Lincoln |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Matty Taylor · Port Vale |
| 33' | ⚽ | Daniel Butterworth · Port Vale |
| 34' | 🟥 | Tom Conlon · Port Vale |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Port Vale |
| 47' | 🟨 | Sam Robinson · Port Vale |
| 55' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Daniel Mandroiu · Lincoln |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matty Taylor · Port Vale |
| 67' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tom Pett · Port Vale |
| 69' | 🟨 | Daniel Butterworth · Port Vale |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sam Robinson · Port Vale |
| 80' | 🟥 | Sam Robinson · Port Vale |
| 87' | ⚽ | Adam Jackson · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Boyes · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1322.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1469.00 | 1362.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.02 | -44.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| league points | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.31 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |