← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lincoln win | 36% | 2.68 |
| Port Vale win | 33% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Port Vale +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand