← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 75% | 55% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 25% | 7.00 | value: +77% |
| Charlton win | 9% | 20% | 12.00 | value: +139% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −1.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Ipswich −1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 14' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luke Woolfenden · Ipswich |
| 57' | 🟨 | Michael Hector · Charlton |
| 64' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ryan Inniss · Charlton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 75' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Ipswich |
| 84' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Ipswich |
| 87' | 🟥 | Ryan Inniss · Charlton |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| Leif Davis · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 500.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1653.22 | 1491.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.36 | 22.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| league points | 82.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 25.33 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 99.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |