← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 40% | 34% | 2.44 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 30% | 38% | 3.21 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Accrington −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 27' | 🟨 | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟥 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Fleetwood Town |
| 47' | 🟨 | Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mitchell Clark · Accrington |
| 57' | ⚽ | Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town |
| 65' | ⚽ | Michael Nottingham · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 2 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 81' |
| ⚽ |
| Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 85' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | ⚽ | Phoenix Patterson · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3848.00 | 530.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1347.15 | 1417.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.85 | 8.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 38.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |