← EFL League One 2022-23 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 50% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.78 | fair |
| Burton win | 24% | 21% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Burton −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.81 |
| Under | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Charlton |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Charlton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sam Hughes · Burton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Charlton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Josh Walker · Burton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Maynard Brewer · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jack Payne · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 130.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1485.19 | 1414.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.41 | 26.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| league points | 52.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 53.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -2.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.04 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -2.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |