← EFL League One 2022-23 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 66% | 59% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.29 | value: +8% |
| Shrewsbury win | 11% | 15% | 8.70 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −1.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Barnsley −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Barnsley |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ryan Bowman · Shrewsbury |
| 40' | ⚽ | Nicky Cadden · Barnsley |
| 45' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Barnsley |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 74' | 🟥 | Nicky Cadden · Barnsley |
| 77' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Shrewsbury |
| 79' | 🟨 | Taylor Moore · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Bowman · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Bloxham · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| 🟨 |
| Killian Phillips · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Shipley · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ryan Bowman · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | ⚽ | Killian Phillips · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 313.00 | 890.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1585.78 | 1445.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.18 | -41.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 75.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.52 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |