← EFL League One 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 53% | 61% | 1.83 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.83 | fair |
| Burton win | 21% | 17% | 4.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Barnsley +0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Charlie Kirk · Burton |
| 48' | 🟨 | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Conor Shaughnessy · Burton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Zachary Ashworth · Burton |
| 69' | 🟨 | John Brayford · Burton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Craig MacGillivray · Burton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Max Watters · Barnsley |
| 87' | ⚽ | Dale Taylor · Burton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Conor Shaughnessy · Burton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Nicky Cadden · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| Mads Juel Andersen · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 218.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1400.72 | 1599.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.81 | 30.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.72 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.75 | 24.22 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.28 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |