← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 42% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Tom Flanagan · Shrewsbury |
| 27' | ⚽ | Scott Fraser · Charlton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Steven Sessegnon · Charlton |
| 36' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 38' | ⚽ | Albie Morgan · Charlton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Shrewsbury |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Charlton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Miles Leaburn · Charlton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Shipley · Shrewsbury |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tom Flanagan · Shrewsbury |
| 69' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | The Valley |
| 🟥 |
| Tom Flanagan · Shrewsbury |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Miles Leaburn · Charlton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Carl Winchester · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 121.00 | 881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1478.16 | 1480.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.89 | 15.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.80 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 49.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.31 | 27.83 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |