← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnsley win | 69% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 |
| Morecambe win | 11% | 8.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnsley −1.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Morecambe −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand