← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 26, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D Rock
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds win | 66% | 77% | 1.45 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 11% | 7% | 8.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Forest Green +1.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Sheffield Weds +1.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.