← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 36% | 38% | 2.70 | value: +4% |
| Charlton win | 35% | 34% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Charlton +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Miles Leaburn · Charlton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Charlton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Hector · Charlton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Miles Leaburn · Charlton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Albie Morgan · Charlton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Chris Forino · Wycombe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ryan Tafazolli · Wycombe |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Grimmer · Wycombe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Jacobson · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 114.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1477.12 | 1573.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.14 | -12.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| league points | 48.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.72 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |