← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 36% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Exeter win | 35% | 39% | 2.83 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Exeter +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Aidan Keena · Cheltenham |
| 35' | 🟨 | Caleb Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Cheltenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luke Southwood · Cheltenham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Will Ferry · Cheltenham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Josh Key · Exeter |
| 74' | ⚽ | Caleb Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Broom · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Will Aimson · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| Josh Key · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 290.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 4.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1403.88 | 1458.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.90 | 12.23 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.14 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 25.00 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |