← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 46% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 25% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Exeter −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 33' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Exeter |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Exeter |
| 69' | 🟨 | Josh Key · Exeter |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Exeter |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Exeter |
| 81' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Exeter |
| 85' | 🟥 | Alex Hartridge · Exeter |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jamal Blackman · Exeter |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| Ben House · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 161.00 | 1287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1450.19 | 1461.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.86 | 0.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 43.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 24.09 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |