← EFL League One 2022-23 · Tue, Feb 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 38% | 36% | 2.59 | fair |
| Bolton win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bolton +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Bolton |
| 48' | ⚽ | Dion Charles · Bolton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kieran Lee · Bolton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ryley Towler · Portsmouth |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ryley Towler · Portsmouth |
| 87' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 58.00 | 972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1503.08 | 1591.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.16 | 30.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.87 |
| league points | 45.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 24.48 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 325.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |