← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 54% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 20% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Portsmouth −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ryan Tunnicliffe · Portsmouth |
| 14' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Cheltenham |
| 20' | ⚽ | Michael Jacobs · Portsmouth |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Charlie Raglan · Cheltenham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Aidan Keena · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Caleb Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Louis Thompson · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 55.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1492.88 | 1381.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.46 | -11.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 42.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 57.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |