← EFL League One 2022-23 · Tue, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
| Plymouth win | 30% | 33% | 3.24 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Plymouth −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Plymouth |
| 19' | ⚽ | Matt Butcher · Plymouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Plymouth |
| 44' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marcus McGuane · Oxford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Brandon Fleming · Oxford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Saxon Earley · Plymouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sam Cosgrove · Plymouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Saxon Earley · Plymouth |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Callum Burton · Plymouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1811.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1471.54 | 1610.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.60 | 7.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.60 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |