← EFL League One 2022-23 · Tue, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bolton win | 59% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 16% | 23% | 6.50 | value: +50% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bolton −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | University of Bolton Stadium |