← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 39% | 38% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.48 |
| Over | 36% | 2.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Dennis Politic · Port Vale |
| 27' | ⚽ | Chey Dunkley · Shrewsbury |
| 33' | ⚽ | Luke Leahy · Shrewsbury |
| 43' | ⚽ | Killian Phillips · Shrewsbury |
| 48' | 🟨 | Carl Winchester · Shrewsbury |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jamie Proctor · Port Vale |
| 54' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Shrewsbury |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dennis Politic · Port Vale |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tom Conlon · Port Vale |
| 62' | 🟨 | Chey Dunkley · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |
| 🟨 |
| Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gavin Massey · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 832.00 | 771.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1467.82 | 1419.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 62.28 | -41.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 57.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.85 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 28.08 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.74 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |