← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Boyeson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 53% | 47% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.87 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 21% | 27% | 4.75 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Charlton −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.81 |
| Under | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
| 28' | ⚽ | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Charlton |
| 52' | ⚽ | Harrison Holgate · Fleetwood Town |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matt Penney · Charlton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 71' | 🟨 | Scott Fraser · Charlton |
| 79' | 🟥 | Ryan Inniss · Charlton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Harvey Macadam · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Valley |
| 🟨 |
| Harrison Holgate · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 72.00 | 467.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1483.80 | 1382.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.80 | -17.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 37.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.66 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |