← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Barnsley win | 62% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.17 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cambridge −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Barnsley −1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand